Stockbrokers Can’t Beat the Market. AI Won’t Either—But It’ll Sound Great Trying.
Let’s talk about financial storytelling. Not the dry, regulatory kind—the investment kind.
You know, the one where your mate at the BBQ says, “I knew Tesla was going to 10x, I just didn’t have the cash at the time.” Or when a stockbroker explains why their latest pick isn’t actually a disaster, it’s just temporarily misunderstood by the market.
Stockbrokers, historically, haven’t been great at beating the market [1]. But what they are brilliant at? Explaining why they didn’t.
Now enter AI.
Artificial Intelligence might not actually be able to pick winning stocks better than the average punter, but what it will do exceptionally well is write beautifully crafted, perfectly logical explanations for why you should have bought X, why it was a good idea despite the drop, and why next time, you really should listen to it.
And the kicker? That’s exactly what stockbrokers have been doing for decades.
Disclosure: I used to share an office with Morgans Capital and have been the recipient of a number of long lunches. Unfortunately, I traded on exactly zero of their stock picks, which is probably why they stopped inviting me out to lunch… womp womp.
Anyway, rolling on—here’s a thought experiment.
You’re a stockbroker, research analyst, Fin Review journalist, or literally anybody whose job relies on sending OUT investment-related information to make them sound smart. You have two options:
A Thought Experiment: The Two AIs
Imagine two AI-powered financial assistants that both probably exist right now.
- Box 1: This AI has been trained on every single stockbroker newsletter ever written. It can whip up a market narrative faster than you can Google “why is the ASX down today?” It knows every investing cliché, every clever anecdote, and every excuse a broker has ever used to explain away a losing trade. For just $20 a month, you get a charming, well-spoken digital stockbroker who sounds just like the real thing—minus the long lunches. It’s funny, intuitive, and when you phone it up, it even remembers the name of your favorite dog! Amazing (I think?).
- Box 2: You chase down MARKET-linked data. A trained black box on real-time stock market data—trillions of data points including every price movement, trade volume, and institutional flow. This AI isn’t a language model but a data model. It’s trained on what’s happening in the market at every second by literal math gold medalists. [Read More]
Guess what? Here’s the weird thing. Both will have an output that looks very similar—e.g., “buy more gold,” or “sell Zambian pork futures.”
What an odd thought.
But here’s the spicier take: some investors don’t actually want a black-box model. They want a friendly, confident-sounding voice telling them why something is a good idea. That’s why AI-powered financial chatbots are already popping up, simulating the experience of talking to an enthusiastic stockbroker. It’s the same reason why fund managers write long investor letters, why analysts produce detailed reports, and why Warren Buffett’s annual shareholder letter is eagerly awaited—it’s not just about the investment insight, it’s about the storytelling.
Let’s also be real—average people will never get access to Box 2. Institutions like Renaissance locked that down ages ago. They’re not about to let anybody in for the price of two Netflix subscriptions.
What This Means for Financial Advice
We’ve all seen it before—the illusion of control in investing [2].
Most people aren’t making money because they have some secret investing edge. They’re making money because the market went up [3]. And when it doesn’t? Well, that’s where good storytelling comes in.
For years, stockbrokers have reassured clients with phrases like:
- “The market misunderstood this quarter’s earnings—long-term, it’s still a winner.”
- “This is a short-term dip; in 5 years, we’ll be laughing.”
- “Yes, it’s down, but the fundamentals haven’t changed.”
Now imagine an AI stockbroker doing the same thing. It doesn’t just pick a stock; it pitches it to you. It tells you about the CEO’s vision, the incredible growth potential, the compelling valuation metrics. If the stock drops? No worries—it’s got 50 years of investment commentary to draw from to explain why it’s still a great idea.
And if it turns out to be a bad call? AI won’t panic—it’ll just generate another perfectly logical, data-backed reason why the market got it wrong. And let’s be honest—that’s exactly what human stockbrokers have been doing all along.
This is the future: AI-powered financial storytelling.
And here’s the reality—if you’re looking for a story, AI will do just fine. But if you actually want to structure your super properly, minimise tax, and retire without stress? That still requires actual financial planning—the kind based on your life, your goals, and your money, not just a fancy stock pitch.
Meet Our Newest Team Member: Daniel McMaster
On a more human note (because we still believe those are important), we’re thrilled to introduce Daniel McMaster, our newest junior adviser.
Daniel didn’t start out in finance. He started out as a tradie, working under the Aussie sun before deciding that, actually, helping people build financial security sounded a lot better than pouring concrete.
So he made the jump.
He spent four years studying, completed a year of professional training, and next week, he’ll sit his final three-hour financial planner exam—basically, the financial planning equivalent of the bar exam for lawyers.
You’ll start seeing Daniel’s name pop up in emails and meetings. He’s switched out his high-vis vest for spreadsheets, and honestly, we’re glad to have him on board. No AI here, just a guy with a serious work ethic and maybe a few sunburn scars from his tradie days.
Listen to Our Latest Podcast: AI & The Future of Financial Advice
If this whole AI vs. Stockbroker idea interests you, we did a deep dive on the latest Wealthlab Podcast episode.
We cover:
✅ Why most stockbrokers underperform the market (but still sound great doing it)
✅ How AI is about to make the financial storytelling industry even bigger
✅ Why the real value in financial advice isn’t stock picks—it’s structuring your financial future
Listen now on our website or wherever you get your podcasts. Just don’t ask AI for stock tips while you’re at it.
Until next time, stay sharp, stay skeptical, and—most importantly—stay focused on the big picture.
References
- SPIVA Australia Scorecard, S&P Dow Jones Indices (2023): Over 80% of Australian active equity fund managers underperform their benchmarks over a 5-year period.
- Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2000). Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth. Study on how individual investors consistently underperform due to overconfidence.
- Bogle, J. C. (2007). The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. Why most investors would be better off with index funds.
